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Is the Packers window closing?
UPI/David Richard
From day one, I have been a big believer in Ted Thompson and his philosophy for building a football team. It took a lot of patience from Packers fans, but the franchise was rewarded with a Super Bowl victory in the 2010 season. Thompson has ALWAYS stuck with guns; drafting best player available, lightly (if that) dabbling in free agency, and growing the team from with-in.
As we get ready for the 2012 campaign, things seem a little different at 1265 Lombardi. In March, C Jeff Saturday and DL Anthony Hargrove highlighted the biggest and most talented free agent class the Packers have seen since the early 1990s. In April, Thompson drafted defense (needs) with the first six selections which included trading up three times which cost them picks, something Thompson has always valued highly. Sunday, the Packers locked up RB Cedric Benson for the season (maybe) to add some depth at the running back position which has been ravaged by injuries during camp. It has been an odd off-season of roster building to say the least.
I am sure Packer Nation, for the most part, is thrilled with an “act now” approach to restocking the roster and honestly, it may pay off. As a Thompson Disciple though, I have learned to look long-term and these moves don’t stack up. This is why I believe the quick-fix mentality is panic that the Packers may be descending from the perch of perennial favorite they have been on for three years now.
We have started to see the signs of what “building from within” does for a team. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James, Jones, Jermichael Finley, Josh Sitton, Desmond Bishop, Tramon Williams, Mason Crosby and Tim Masthay are examples of guys that the Packers have developed and have rewarded with extensions for their work.
On the flip side, Daryn Colledge, Cullen Jenkins and Scott Wells are among that guys that have found their work rewarded elsewhere. All those guys (well, Colledge could be debated) could have helped this team since their departure. Though long-term (as Ted works), with some of the future deals that are coming up, bring these guys back did not fit in the plans (example: Jenkins…2013, you may lose Raji because of him).
Let’s look ahead…guys who SHOULD/COULD be on the 53-man (all contract info thanks to spotrac.com)
***Guys in bold are starters/contributors who could get significant raises/deals***
Contracts up after 2012:
- WR Greg Jennings
- WR Donald Driver
- WR Tori Gurley
- WR Diondre Borel
- TE Tom Crabtree
- G T.J Lang
- OL Evan Dietrich-Smith
- DL Anthony Hargrove
- DL Jarius Wynn
- LB Robert Francois
- LB Brad Jones
- LB Erik Walden
- LB Frank Zombo
- CB Sam Shields
- LS Brett Goode
Contracts up after 2013:
- QB Graham Harrell
- RB James Starks
- RB John Kuhn
- WR James Jones
- TE Jermichal Finley
- C Jeff Saturday
- OT Marshall Newhouse
- DT B.J Raji
- DT Ryan Pickett
- DT Mike Neal
- LB Clay Matthews
- S Morgan Burnett
- S M.D Jennings
Contracts up after 2014:
- QB Aaron Rodgers
- RB Alex Green
- WR Randall Cobb
- WR Jordy Nelson
- OT Bryan Bulaga
- OT Derrek Sherrod
- LB Desmond Bishop
- DB Charles Woodson
- CB Tramon Williams
- CB Devon House
Yes, the Packers will pay a lot of these guys to stay around and more than likely, will be playoff caliber as long as Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are around. However, some of these guys will slip through the cracks and end up elsewhere, maybe as early as this year. Who do you sign and who do you let go? Greg Jennings and T.J Lang? How about 2013, Clay Matthews and B.J Raji? Also, when will they extend Rodgers but how much will he get? Bulaga and Newhouse at tackles?
The pattern that let Jenkins and Wells go the past couple years is going to continue and maybe get worse. So are we seeing the “by-the-book” Ted Thompson panic? I think so. If the moves pay off, great for Packers fans. But, that is why I think the “window” is closing at the same time. The BEST chance the Packers have to win it all may be 2012 and Ted may be showing that. Not saying the Packers won’t win it after 2012 because they could. And honestly, I would be shocked to see them sub .500 anytime soon in the McCarthy/Rodgers era. However, I don’t see them being the “favorites” after 2013 and the way Thompson has gone about things this year, I think he would agree.
Justin Hull is the host of the “Home Stretch” heard 2p-5p on 95.3 FM, WSCO Radio n Green Bay/Appleton, Wisconsin and Sports Reporter for WHBY Radio in Appleton, WI. Follow him on twitter (@jh1570) or facebook.
hull, i love you like a forgotten 1/2 brother, but you are WAY OFF on this one. Here’s why:
* I believe every year Ted takes a stab at these veteran moves AT HI$ PRICE. Remember we ALMOST got Tony Gonzalez, but were outbid at the 23 1/2 hour. Also, we ALMOST had Randy Moss if it wasn’t for Ted living in his bottom cellar and refusing to budge. He is not a NON PLAYER as you sort of imply. He is simply a bottom feeder. And this year the bargain was full for Teddy T. Saturday took less to play for a winner, Hargrove suspension was pending which scared the other GMs off, and Ceddy Bear was home doing sit ups in his driveway (ala T.O.). It just worked out that way this year for Ted. Ted doesn’t panic he doesn’t HAVE TO.
* We have one year to sign up the current free agents. Two years to sign up the ones Teddy wants to sign. And he will, so don’t freak out like they are all gone. His track record proves it. Also, A-Rodge is about winning and the team. Plan on his salary to be HUGE but also CAP FRIENDLY.
* Lastly, you are not plugging in FUTURE or CURRENT prospects and draftees into your future roster making it look like the cupboard will be bare. This isn’t baseball Justin. We don’t need to be loaded and grooming talent. Draft em and play em. Next man up! Teddy T (and his step cousin Billy B) have proven that systems works incredibly well in the NFL. And the Redskins, Raiders, Vikings, and Jets have all proven “chasing the window of opportunity” doesn’t work.
Relax…we have been good/great for 20 years… the Mayans are wrong, we have plenty of time as long as we have A-Rodge and the current management.
Counter Points Beefe…
1.) T-Gon and Moss, yes…however, lets look at a couple things. T-Gon was wanted to be in the fold for a few years, not a one year rental. Same with Moss. If Thompson would have been willing to give Moss just one-year, he would have been a Packer. Teddy wanted to, Randy didn’t. The Pats obliged and the rest is history. Benson is 1-year…there is no long term commitment there, something Thompson has, since day 1, has been about. Good point but it falls short…
2.)Yes, the plan is to sign guys BUT there has always been a back-up plan. Green Bay is not going to be able to sign EVERYONE on the list so some guys are going to fall through the cracks…and in the past, there has been a guy there. Jordy Nelson, T.J Lang, Mike Neal (didn’t work but ya), Erik Walden, Brad Jones…these are guys the Packers would draft and we would scratch our heads. He gave up 3 of these guys by trading up in the draft. The roster has talent, but it will lose a lot at the top because of it.
3.) This year is different than the previous 7 for Ted. That’s the big difference. That is why, for the reasons I presented, I wonder what is up.
I am not saying the Packers are going to be bad (did you miss that part?). The glove doesn’t fit…something is up.
You also failed to mention that the Packers have $239 million is reserve funds. They have the money to pay all of their free agents if they want (given a new Rodgers contract will probably take up a good portion of that). They will just have to be creative on how they structure the contracts. Much like Drew Brees’s new contract where he has a base salary of $3 million this year but has a huge signing bonus.
@Detroit…There is a Salary Cap that it doesn’t matter how much in the reserve fund they have, they will only be able to spend so much. Stack Rodgers/Matthews/Jennings/Raji and the likes on top of each other, they are going to be maxed at some point. Not to mention 4-year rookie deals coming up sooner, too. This year doesn’t make sense for a GM that has prided himself on doing it his way.
not to pile on, but to pile on…
tj lang contract extension announced. in ted we trust. no worries mr. hull. ted has a plan. much bigger than this year. we are in good hands.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/13/packers-extend-guard-t-j-lang/
they will let shields go or get him cheap based on his actions this year…and then we just have to sign jennings, which i would watch for that to be done when he recovers from all his little ailments. i say by week 7. and then ZERO free agents we lose in 2012. that’s good stuff right there!
2013 and 2014…that is all I am saying.
This comment board is funny. About 4 years ago people were all like “Teddy T is a D-Bag, I love Favre, I hate Teddy T, AHHHHHHHHHHH”
Now everyone is all like “In Ted we trust, don’t question him”
I love social media.
Just a note on that Goat, 4-years ago I was in the minority of the Thompson supporters, I have the show tapes to prove that! And am I doubting Ted at all in this? No…
The point is, this off-season has been different and I think the moves are quality! Looking ahead, especially after 2013, the roster may look different. Usually, Ted is a step ahead of the game based on the draft/other moves…this year, it feels like its about now, and not the balance.
I was always “In Ted we Trust” although I did waiver a bit when he didn’t get Marshawn Lynch (didn’t check my spelling on that one spelling police. Guess it turned out OK.
I do agree, the “all in approach” recently does go against Teddy’s M.O. Cedric Benson is not your typical Teddy T pickup.
If I recall, Ted did once say that he would pick up free agents if he felt it made the team win and if he felt the team was close to winning it all. I think Teddy does see that, with this current squad, the Packers are indeed in their window. IT IS TIME. Teddy is all in and Cedric can only help.
Maybe the title got people all nervous. By saying the “Window is closing” or implying it, Packer fans get very worried. Dont dare say our window is closing haha…..
How about this…”All-in with the Chip Lead”…