Gamblin Guru – Week 2
CloneRoach lit it up last week, going 7-4. Great way to start the year. CloneRoach made money, Ralphnuts made money. A few more weeks like that, and we’ll be quitting the day job and taking this shit to Vegas.
Top 11 Wagers for the weekend listed in no particular order (We are picking the team wtht the number next to their name to cover the spread)
1) Utah -7.5 at Utah State (Friday) — The Utes were 8-5 a year ago and returned 16 starters this year. Utah shut out Northern Colorado 41-0 in week one and the defense appears be very solid this year. Jordan Wynn looks comfortable as JR and John White who rushed for over 1500 yards last year had 119 yards in the season opener. Too much talent for the Aggies who will hang around until the 4th quarter. Utah 34 Utah State 21
2) Arkansas State -23.0 vs. Memphis — The following is true – Memphis is terrible. They were horrendous last year at 2-10 and now have a new hc in Justin Fuente. They open up the regular season with a home loss to UT-Martin. Arkansas State on the other hand got to go to Eugene, Oregon and play the flash. Arkansas State was overmatched but that team fought against the Duck backups and the final score 57-34 reflected that fight. The Red Wolves can score with Aplin at the helm. This one was 47-3 last year and I look for similar this year. Arkansas State 41 Memphis 10
3) N.C. State at UCONN +6.5 — NC State didn’t have enough last week against Tennessee and this is a must-win for O’Brien in order to keep the Wolfpack faithful positive. Glennon struggled against the Volunteers throwing four interceptions and UCONN has a very solid defense. Last year the Huskies struggled at 5-7 but the defense only gave up 367 yards a game and 24 points a contest. The Huskies beat UMASS 37-0 last week and outgained them 372-59 in total yards. UCONN was not sharp on offense but was excellent on defense and special teams. Close game this week. NC State 24 UCONN 21
4) Nebraska -5.5 at UCLA — Nebraska is back and Taylor Martinez has shown the ability to be a competent QB. Martinez was 26 of 34 with five touchdowns last week against Southern Mississippi. Quite frankly if Martinez can be 70% of that the Huskers will walk to the Big 10 title. As indicated above UCLA has talent just not sure if they are ready for this game. Nebraska 38 UCLA 27
5) North Carolina -8.5 at Wake Forest — I will likely regret this play on Sunday morning because it just appears too easy and I hate betting against Jim Grobe and Wake Forest. However, the talent disparity cannot be ignored. Larry Fedora’s squad looked good against Elon 62-0 and QB Renner and RB Benard are All-ACC talent. The defense was the suspect area last year but looked good in Week One allowing only 170 yards and forcing 4 turnovers. Meanwhile Wake Forest beat Liberty 20-17 and was outgained 363-293 in total yardage. North Carolina 42 Wake Forest 21
6) Texas Tech -17.5 at Texas State — Texas State pulled the major upset at Houston this weekend against an first year HC and an inexperienced Houston wide receiving core. The Red Raiders are a different animal. The Red Raiders won the contest 50-10 last year and although it should be closer Texas Tech with have too much with Doege at QB and an excellent WR core and underrated Eric Stephens at RB. Texas Tech 45 Texas State 17
7) Nevada -1.0 vs. South Florida — The Wolfpack are a better squad than a number of BCS teams. That would include a majority of the Big East. More importantly the Wolfpack fans will be up for the opportunity to take a BCS school down. Fajardo and Stephfon Jefferson will have a nice day on the ground and USF will struggle defending the pistol. Nevada has won 17 of their last 18 at home. Nevada becomes the mid-major darling. Nevada 38 USF 28
8- Miami (Fla) at Kansas State – 6.5 — As discussed above Klein and the Kansas State running game will prove to be the difference. It will be a shootout though as the Hurricanes certainly have offensive weapons. Kansas State 41 Miami (Fla) 31
9) New Mexico State +21.0 at Ohio- – Let down spot here. The Bobcats are coming off the best win in program history. The problem is that Penn State is vastly overrated and the Bobcats struggled to move the ball against the Nittany Lions. New Mexico State will struggle against the Bobcat offense but Ohio will sleep walk for a half before getting down to business. That well be long enough for Manly and the Aggie offense to get some points. At least enough for the cover. Ohio 34 New Mexico State 21
10) Louisiana Tech -3.5 at Houston — Louisiana Tech got rained out against Texas A&M but this team is the best in the WAC and certainly can compete with the middle-lower tier BCS teams. Houston is wondering what the hell happened after the 30-13 upset by 36 point underdog Texas State. Louisiana Tech’s defense controls this game from the get-go and the Bulldogs get a nice road W. Louisiana Tech 35 Houston 20
11) Toledo at Wyoming -3.0—Toledo had a nice showing against Arizona but now we jump off the Rocket bandwagon at get some nice value with Wyoming. The Cowboys showed some moxie against Texas before losing 37-17. The Cowboys rush defense is still suspect but Toledo can’t stop anyone as they gave up 624 yards of total offense against Arizona but were saved by three Wildcat turnovers. Wyoming will get a nice effort from Brett Smith and a balanced offense with pull out a nice victory against the Rockets.
Obligatory Handicapping on Local games:
Iowa State +5.0 at Iowa—Iowa State 28 Iowa 21
Wisconsin -8.5 at Oregon State—Wisconsin 34 Oregon State 24
New Hampshire at Minnesota—No line yet for this one but I would expect 14+ for New Hampshire. Take the points as M. Gray needs to win a few games before I’m a believer.
Good luck to everyone this weekend.